alt Hacker News> AI is a world-changing technology, just like the railroads were
This comparison keeps popping up, and I think it's misleading. The pace of technology uptake is completely different from that of railroads: the user base of ChatGPT alone went from 0 to 200 million in nine months, and it's now- after just three years- around 900 million users on a weekly basis. Even if you think that railroads and AI are equally impactful (I don't, I think AI will be far more impactful) the rapidity with which investments can turn into revenue and profit makes the situation entirely different from an investor's point of view.
Replies
> just three years- around 900 million users on a weekly basis.
Well, I rotate about a dozen of free accounts because I don't want to send 1 cent their way, I imagine I'm not the only one. I do the same for gemini, claude and deepseek, so all in all I account for like 50 "unique" weekly users
Apparently they have about 5% of paying customers, the amount of total users is meaningless, it just tells you how much money they burn and isn't an indication of anything else.
> user base of ChatGPT alone went from 0 to 200 million in nine months, and it's now- after just three years- around 900 million users on a weekly basis.
Doesn't have anything to do with AI itself. Consider Instagram then TikTok before this, WhatsApp before, etc. There is a clear adoption curve timeline : it's going WorldWide faster. AI is not special in that sense. It doesn't mean AI itself isn't special (arguable, in fact Narayanan precisely argue it's "normal") but rather than adoption pace is precisely on track with everything else.
It is beside the point, but
> I think AI will be far more impactful
is not correct IMO. Those are two very different areas. The impact of railroads on transport and everything transport-related cannot be understated. By now roads and cars have taken over much of it, and ships and airplanes are doing much more, but you have to look at the context at the time.
Paid user base or free user base? Because free user base on a very expensive product is next to meaningless.
Railroads enabled people and goods to move from one place to another much easier and faster.
AI enables people to... produce even more useless slop than before?
Railroads carried the goods that everybody used. That’s like almost 100% in a given country.
The pace was slower indeed. It takes time to build the railroads. But at that time advancements also lasted longer. Now it is often cash grabs until the next thing. Not comparable indeed but for other reasons.