“I've noticed the pattern of big technical ideas. They’re obvious in hindsight. They cost money early.” ~

“What’s worked for me is a rough three-question filter,” Moxley continues,

“What assumption would be most easily disproven if it’s false?” “What

Is it something that can be cheaply verified in weeks, not months?

“Who would notice if this quietly failed?”

When I don’t skip this, what ends up happening is that I am endorsing the wrong thing. When I do, good ideas also die prematurely.

What the others do, curious to see.

Do you write out assumptions or is it an informal process?

How early do you bring outsiders to poke holes?

Any heuristics for distinguishing between "hard but right" and "just hard"?

Examples always appreciated. Failures too.