I guess two things can be true at the same time. And I think AI will likely matter a lot more than detractors think, and nowhere near as much as enthusiasts think.

Perhaps a good analogy is the spreadsheet. It was a complete shift in the way that humans interacted with numbers. From accounting to engineering to home budgets - there are few people who haven't used a spreadsheet to "program" the computer at some point.

It's a fantastic tool, but has limits. It's also fair to say people use (abuse) spreadsheets far beyond those limits. It's a fantastic tool for accounting, but real accounting systems exist for a reason.

Similarly AI will allow lots more people to "program" their computer. But making the programing task go away just exposes limitations in other parts of the "development" process.

To your analogy I don't think AI does mass-produced paperbacks. I think it is the equivalent of writing a novel for yourself. People don't sell spreadsheets, they use them. AI will allow people to write programs for themselves, just like digital cameras turned us all into photographers. But when we need it "done right" we'll still turn to people with honed skills.