It has! CLs/engineer increased by 10% this year.
LLMs from late 2024 were nearly worthless as coding agents, so given they have quadrupled in capability since then (exponential growth, btw), it's not surprising to see a modestly positive impact on SWE work.
Also, I'm noticing you're not explaining yourself :)
Hey, I'm not the OG commentator, why do I have to explain myself! :)
When Fernando Alonso (best rookie btw) goes from 0-60 in 2.4 seconds in his Aston Martin, is it reasonable to assume he will near the speed of light in 20 seconds?
LLMs a year ago were more able to do a complex project I've repeatedly tried to do than they are now.
I think this is happening by raising the floor for job roles which are largely boilerplate work. If you are on the more skilled side or work in more original/ niche areas, AI doesn't really help too much. I've only been able to use AI effectively for scaling refactors, not really much in feature development. It often just slows me down when I try to use it. I don't see this changing any time soon.