I don’t think the path was ever exponential but your claim here is almost as if the slow down hit an asymptote like wall.

Most of the improvements are intangible. Can we truly say how much more reliable the models are? We barely have quantitative measurements on this so it’s all vibes and feels. We don’t even have a baseline metric for what AGI is and we invalidated the Turing test also based on vibes and feels.

So my argument is that part of the slow down is in itself an hallucination because the improvement is not actually measurable or definable outside of vibes.