alt Hacker NewsRegarding the Steam Deck, Linux is _already_ 3% of Steam users: https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey, while MacOS is under 2%.
I think it's also maybe worth pointing out that "non-enthusiast desktop OS user" is a segment that is shrinking. A lot of the people that aren't going to Linux are just going to smartphones only rather than buy a new laptop for Win11.
Steam users represent well the pc gaming crowd, but they don’t represent well the majority of the mac or Linux user crowd, of course.
But you raise a good point that some users will stop using windows without ever picking up another desktop os at all. Not many that don’t already not use desktops, but some for sure.