alt Hacker NewsI'm not forced to drink Coke or Pepsi if I go to a bar. Only if I specifically want a cola I very likely get whatever cola they got (likely either Coke or Pepsi). If you want to use a computer, it will have DRAM, and you'll end up with one of the DRAM hardware manufacturers.
> Let's remember that OpenAI came from basically nowhere -- to give Google a run for its money -- as did Google with Microsoft's behemoth 20+ years ago...
Yeah, but the capital behind it certainly did not:
> OpenAI was initially founded as a nonprofit organization by Altman, Greg Brockman, Elon Musk, Jessica Livingston, Peter Thiel, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Infosys, and YC Research. When OpenAI launched in 2015, it had raised pledges for $1 billion. [1]
Altman was well connected, with rich friends. People like Thiel and Musk. Under the guise of a non-profit they eventually pulled a rug to make OpenAI for-profit.
The barrier of entry for hardware design is also just plain different than software. There was a good talk on that recently on 39c3.
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Seems more likely OpenAI or one of the hyperscalers would continue vertical expansion into chips but likely only supply themselves--possibly making proprietary variants only they could use anyway
Seems to be the case with CPUs although I know that's a bit different since they're contracting with existing fabs
We know, minimally, from Perplexity's list above, that there exist multiple alternative DRAM manufacturers other than Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix, that have completed at least some of the barriers of entry to the high-end DRAM market, and possibly many...
We also know that the world is full of capital -- as you suggest.
That capital is continually looking for investment opportunities, and DRAM is a huge, huge market...
When capital invests in markets, any barriers to entry are moved, if not outright displaced (i.e., OpenAI, $1 billion, etc.).
Point is, we don't know what the future will hold...
I think it's a good bet that cheaper DRAM, DDR5 and otherwise, will be coming down the pike soon, once production catches up, once supply outpaces demand...