I gave you a predictive model, and I challenge you to prove it is incorrect. Nations do what they want irrespective of international law. If they can write it to align with what they wanted to accomplish anyway, they will. Otherwise they ignore it.

Go touch grass, brother. Life is more than models. Most things in life really aren’t that complicated. People do what they want and make up the reasons for why they did what they did as they go. It’s basic human behavior at the state level.