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shiandowlast Monday at 11:46 AM0 repliesview on HN

It all boils down to the fact that mean and variance give a good approximation of a probability distribution.

In the same way that things typically converge to the average they converge even more strongly to a normal distribution. So estimating noise as a normal distribution is often good enough.

The second order approximation is just really really good, and higher orders are nigh impossible to work with.