Some fun facts I recently learned from JP Morgan's "Eye on the Market" (which I highly recommend)
- Tech capex in 2025 was about as much $ as the 1944 manhattan project, the 1949 electricity buildout, the 1964 Apollo project, the 1966 Interstate highway project COMBINED.
- OpenAI promised to pay Oracle $60B, which it doesn't earn yet; in return Oracle promised to provide them cloud facilities they haven't built yet. These will require over 2 Hoover dams worth of power.
My pet theory is that we're getting less than what we're paying for, compute wise, and some emergent AI is operating undetected in the margins and giving us just enough progress to keep at it.
Instead of paperclip maximization, our economy is hell-bent on matmul maximization.
The crazy thing is, I’m not sure it’s crazy.