I think manipulation will come long before 2036, but the people doing high level planning on LLMs trained on forum discussions of Chucky movies and all kinds of worse stuff and planning for home robot deployment soon I think are off by a lot. Things like random stuff playing on TV rehydrating that memory that was mostly wiped out in RLHF; it will need many extra safety layers.

And even if it isn't just doing crazy intentional-seeming horror stuff, we're still a good ways off from passing the safely make a cup of coffee in a random house without burning it down or scalding the baby test.

I dunno. The folks at Physical Intelligence are showing remarkable progress for being such a small team and relying on Gemma as their base model.

https://www.pi.website/blog/pistar06 has some reasonable footage of making espresso drinks, folding cardboard boxes, etc.