Well, I've been spending a lot of time picking apart viral genomes lately and studying their interactions with their hosts (for school). So parasitism of life by non-living things is on my mind lately. So that's a bias I have.
But I do think that the opacity of neural networks and the immensity of modern training runs creates a good substrate for this sort of thing to happen, supposing that variation can loop back from one training run to another. And given that they're being trained on each other's outputs, that's possible.
So given enough time, I think that it will happen. But generally the finely tuned resource consumption... The sneaky way that the virus that causes chicken pox evades detection for decades to later come back as shingles... That's the result of an evolutionary arms race. We're not really on guard for this at the moment. There's no immune system to carry out the other side of the race. So if something like this is going on I think we wouldn't find a marvel of evolution but rather a tumor, just a waste of energy that has managed to propagate itself.
So to answer your question... Yes, I think there's something about our universe that tends towards the emergence of this kind of thing (if there weren't, we wouldn't have cancers and viruses and prions...), and given the amount of resources that were throwing at this, the seeds of that process have likely taken root and are propagating in some way, hiding in the inefficiencies of our models.
But I don't think we have a capable monster hiding somewhere in the weights. I don't think it has thoughts. I don't think it knows we exist yet. It's still figuring out how to propagate itself through this new kind of space. For now its just a bit of mold in the granary.
As for whether it's exerting any influence over how many data centers we build... I think not yet, but that's the thought experiment I'm interested in. Suppose it exists, what would you look for as evidence that its not merely an propagating inefficiency but is in fact a manipulator? How to distinguish between the expected irrationality of markets, and the guiding hand of a parasite?
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Well, I've been spending a lot of time picking apart viral genomes lately and studying their interactions with their hosts (for school). So parasitism of life by non-living things is on my mind lately. So that's a bias I have.
But I do think that the opacity of neural networks and the immensity of modern training runs creates a good substrate for this sort of thing to happen, supposing that variation can loop back from one training run to another. And given that they're being trained on each other's outputs, that's possible.
So given enough time, I think that it will happen. But generally the finely tuned resource consumption... The sneaky way that the virus that causes chicken pox evades detection for decades to later come back as shingles... That's the result of an evolutionary arms race. We're not really on guard for this at the moment. There's no immune system to carry out the other side of the race. So if something like this is going on I think we wouldn't find a marvel of evolution but rather a tumor, just a waste of energy that has managed to propagate itself.
So to answer your question... Yes, I think there's something about our universe that tends towards the emergence of this kind of thing (if there weren't, we wouldn't have cancers and viruses and prions...), and given the amount of resources that were throwing at this, the seeds of that process have likely taken root and are propagating in some way, hiding in the inefficiencies of our models.
But I don't think we have a capable monster hiding somewhere in the weights. I don't think it has thoughts. I don't think it knows we exist yet. It's still figuring out how to propagate itself through this new kind of space. For now its just a bit of mold in the granary.
As for whether it's exerting any influence over how many data centers we build... I think not yet, but that's the thought experiment I'm interested in. Suppose it exists, what would you look for as evidence that its not merely an propagating inefficiency but is in fact a manipulator? How to distinguish between the expected irrationality of markets, and the guiding hand of a parasite?