I suspect scaling will not die a slow death, but rather slow for a while and then all at once. Further, I think we’re at the knee. We know scaling doesn’t work for resolving the fundamental issues we have with large models at this point. If it did, the latest models would have solved the issues. Now, we’re in the acceptance phase. That’s not technical, it’s human psychology. People who made bold claims and huge promises that things would get better if we just spent a few more billion dollars on data centers and GPUs need to unwind those claims and find a way to save face.