I doubt it’s something we could know without it happening.

US has intel and some other options, but it would be a colossal issue and adjustment.

China has its well funded, fast progressing Chinese chiplets, but it would be a colossal issue and adjustment.

All we can tea leaf is this: which party has a better history of making large fast industrial adjustments, and which economy is more reliant on cutting edge chips? I think china wins on both personally, so I would give them the edge, gun to head. But it’s an extremely messy process for either.