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fc417fc802last Wednesday at 10:33 PM7 repliesview on HN

> which is mostly because it's really expensive to build houses,

Assuming you're referring to the typical high CoL areas, the shortage has very little to do with the expense of building. The zoning laws don't permit sufficient supply in those areas. And that's quite unlikely to change (at least quickly) because anyone pushing such reform would be obliterating the average Joe's net worth.


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throwaway2037last Thursday at 12:19 AM

    > anyone pushing such reform would be obliterating the average Joe's net worth.
This what Obama calls the false choice dichotomy -- "Damned if you do, damned if you don't." In your scenario, if we build more homes, then existing home owners are "obliterated". This is untrue. We can easily build twice as much in high cost areas (with the strongest job markets) with little impact on existing home owners.
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thaumasioteslast Thursday at 5:59 AM

> anyone pushing such reform would be obliterating the average Joe's net worth.

Only in a purely illusory sense. Suppose you have all your net worth tied up in a house. If your house magically vanished, you'd have nothing but your job.

The price of houses falls to $500 and you potentially go bankrupt. Then, you buy a house for $500.

You, personally, are now better off than you were before. Some examples:

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1. You have $200,000 of equity in a $700,000 house. After the price drop, your net worth in dollars has improved by $300,000. Your net worth in "stuff" has risen dramatically; you kept your job, and now you have 100% of a house instead of having 30% of a house.

2. You have $700,000 of equity in a $700,000 house. After the price drop, your net worth in dollars is down by $699,500. Your net worth in stuff is unchanged. Assuming you always need to live in a house, this will never have any negative impact on you. You retain the option to live in the house you have (which leaves your life unchanged), and you also retain the option to sell your house and use the proceeds to buy another house (and this option looks a lot better than it used to; given the crash in prices, you can probably afford a much nicer house).

3. You have $200,000 of equity in a $700,000 house. You also have $15,000 of "equity" (resale value) in a car that you owe no money on and bought for $50,000. After the price crash, you lose your house and your car, and then you buy another house for $500.

Replacing your car will cost you $50,000. You are in a similar position to the guy in example (1), but $50,000 poorer. So now we ask: was it better to be $500,000 in the hole on your house before, or to be $50,000 in the hole on your car now?

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There isn't a way for the average Joe not to come out ahead. There is a way for someone else to lose out on the price crash: if you had more than one house before, you lost everything on the houses you weren't living in. But that's got nothing to do with the average Joe.

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packetlostlast Wednesday at 10:39 PM

In areas with low CoL the cost of building houses and the cost of selling a house has a massive impact on the number and type of homes that get built. If it's not profitable for a builder to build a home they simply won't, whether it's because of bureaucratic red tap or economic conditions. There's very strong incentives for builders to take the path of least resistance and highest margin.

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patagurbonlast Thursday at 12:27 AM

The zoning laws are far from the only tool used by municipalities to dramatically reduce supply. Permitting, requiring expensive changes at various points in the process, local building boards requiring extraneous modifications and often forcing scope reductions, affordable housing requirements, etc all make building more expensive. Often by a very large amount.

These processes are intentionally labyrinthine

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davidwlast Wednesday at 11:23 PM

Eh, reforms are starting to happen, like here in Oregon.

https://bendbulletin.com/2025/12/13/middle-housing-slowly-de...

Or this:

https://bendyimby.com/2025/06/12/detached-townhomes-come-to-...

And it continues:

https://www.sightline.org/2025/06/04/oregons-zoning-reforms-...

It generally does not drop values, just allows for cheaper options.

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estearumlast Wednesday at 10:44 PM

Not true.

Cost of living is high because local incomes are high which increases the price of land and labor which increases the price of building.

Restrictive zoning is bad for lots of reasons, but solving it does not solve affordability.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w33694

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