> A state actor would (and could trivially) pad the wrong directions
This isn't how BGP works. An AS-PATH isn't the path the traffic will follow; it's the path that this overall announcement has allegedly tranversed and is (one of many attributes) used to judge the quality of route. The next hop tells our peer where they should send the data if they like this route.
Putting more things in the AS path makes the route less attractive. Leaking a new route isn't going to magically make some other route become more preferred.
Actually many networks will prefer routing over a cheap AS path no matter how long it is.
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> This isn't how BGP works
This is exactly how BGP works.
https://bgplabs.net/policy/7-prepend/
> Leaking a new route isn't going to magically make some other route become more preferred.
Not magic, but technology can look like magic when you don't understand it.
You're spot on regarding the mechanics. It's important to reinforce that in BGP, AS-PATH length is a cost metric and not a steering wheel.