alt Hacker News> how do you tell when a war has gone hot
When attacks are carried out or when an annexation is taking place. It's really quite simple to identify when a hostile force is moving in.
> Stanislav Petrov
Was litterally under the sea with no communications and took the prescient approach of better to wait. This is not some ambiiguity of hot war or not.
> Was litterally under the sea with no communications and took the prescient approach of better to wait. This is not some ambiiguity of hot war or not.
1. Was actually on duty at the Serpukhov-15 bunker near Moscow.
2. Was absolutely an ambiguity. The USSR's land radar was incapable of detecting missiles beyond the horizon, his ultimate confirmation that the satellite warning was in error was the subsequent non-arrival of an exploding nuke.
The argument that Petrov relied on to make an informed guess in advance is essentially "it would be strange and surprising for the USA to attack in this way". Nobody could make such an argument to justify failing to respond to a suspected attack while Trump is in charge, because Trump is repeatedly observed doing strange and surprising things like calling for an annexation of multiple allies or violating the US constitution and apparently getting away with it.