My mom uses the Google app instead of just going to Google.com on Safari. She’s probably going to use Gemini because she’s locked into that ecosystem. I suspect most people are going to stick with what they use because like you said, to consumers, they can’t really tell the difference between each model. They might get a 5% better answer, but is that worth the switching costs? Probably not.
That’s why you see people here mention Claude Code or other CLI where Gemini has always fallen short. Because to us, we see more than a 5% difference between these models and switching between these models is easy if you’re using a CLI.
It’s also why this article is generated hype. If Gemini was really giving the average consumer better answers, people would be switching from ChatGPT to Gemini but that’s not happening.