OT: I enjoyed seeing a dictionary-correct use of the term 'begging the question' in the wild :-)

The longer it takes to burst, the worse the outcome.

Housing is being propped up by the governments of the west because it was already so problematic if it fails that millions of people would be severely impacted.

Even the housing backed mortgage crisis of 2008 was as large a shock as the great depression, the reason we’re not all using money as toilet paper is due to government intervention. Rightly or wrongly. Some people believe that this intervention makes something worse bound to happen later- and based on the cost of housing I tend to believe them. It is not sustainable to keep housing at its current cost, and the financial model requires that they continue to increase in price. If house prices fall it is a disaster for millions.

There are a few noticeable differences between housing as an asset and AI datacenters. Beyond the obvious difference that a house has a depreciation in the order of decades, whereas AI GPUs are a few years.

Then there is the fact that housing is a fundamental human need whereas AI, as frequently demonstrated, isn‘t even a want by many people.

I am not saying that AI cannot demonstrate todays value 20 years into the future. But there is zero reason to believe the short to medium term payoffs on AI investment will be proportional to the investment we‘ve seen over the past few years

It's bursting as we speak, but certain actors are pulling every lever there is to slow down the process:

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/housing-index

Unsuccessfully, I might add.

> That’s because that so-called bubble has been ballooning in size for three decades now, and almost nobody still believes that it will “burst” in any meaningful sense.

That's because Boomers live far longer than prior generations thanks to medical advances. The housing bubble will collapse (at least outside of the megalopolises) once the Boomers finally start to die en masse due to their over-representation in demographics.

But before that, the pension systems will crash hard. For people in systems with redistributions (like most of Europe), there simply aren't enough working age people contributing payments for the pensioners, and for people in stonk-based systems (e.g. US 401k), they will run into the issue that someone has to buy the stocks that the pensioners sell off to fund their retirement, and ain't no one of my generation buying stocks, thanks to us having to spend insane amounts of rent.

It is cause housing bubble was a thing of 2000 and burst in 2008 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000s_United_States_housing_bu...

People dont talk about housing bubble as much, because it is history at this point. Not something that would go on now.

And no, housing being expensive is not the same thing as a bubble. We dont have bubble in housing now.