> Are we going to suddenly realize all these productivity gains people are claiming are all lies

I'll grant you that many have become adamant that LLMs suddenly, out of the blue, became useful just last week, which is much too soon to have any concrete data for, but coding agents in some shape have been around for quite a while and in the data we have there isn't offering of any suggestion of productivity gains yet.

And I'm not sure many are even claiming that they are more productive, just that the LLMs have allowed them to carry out a task faster. Here's the thing: At least my experience, coding was never the bottleneck. The bottleneck has always been the business people squabbling over what the customers and business need. They haven't yet figured out how to get past their egos.

The most promise for productivity seems to be from lone startup founders who aren't constrained by the squabbling found in a larger organization and can now get more done thanks to the task shortening. However, the economic conditions are not favourable to that environment right now. Consumers are feeling tapped out, marketing has become way harder, and, even when everything else is in place, nobody is going to consider your "SaaS" when they believe the foundational LLMs will be able to do the same thing tomorrow.