Many FOSS business models did, explicitly or implicitly, rely, not on direct obfuscation or overcomplication, but on not making things easy. So you sell not the product, services around the product.

This is not exclusive to FOSS. It is also the basic model of most non SaaS B2B, often for good reason referred to by the derogatory term 'consulting-ware'.

AI eats into these services, as it commoditizes them. 80%+ of what used to take a specialist for that product can now be handled by a good generalist + AI.

Leaving aside the business model impact for a second, getting rid of obfuscation incentives is intrinsically good thing for a user community.

Dries' solution, offering operations as a SaaS or managed service, is meeting a need AI can't as easily match, but not exactly for the the stated reason. What the client is actually buying is making something someone else's problem. And CIOs will always love this more than anything if they can credibly justify it.

Where AI does impact this is in that latter part. If AI does significantly commoditize operational expertise, then the cost of in-house operating is (sometimes dramatically) lowered, and thus the justification gap on the CIO side for spending outside widens. How much this will drive a decision will be highly variable between businesses and projects.