alt Hacker News> They don't trust me or the logic and so dismiss it.
This is me, the logic of Monty Hall Doors does not make sense to me, so luckily I found this one: https://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/2021/montyhall/Monty.h...
After running the process 500 times, the ratio seems insane (using the stay tactic, 67% loss & 33% wins) - it makes me able to accept "that is just how it is then", but absolutely does not explain WHY, because in my mind, once you open the door, the situation resets to 50/50 - so there should be no difference if I stay or switch. The fundamental misunderstanding of statistics is probably what is the problem.
It's funny to observe own mind in this process, and how much of a "struggle" there is to convince one-self that what seems logical and sensible is in-fact a wrong interpretation and can only exists due to lack of understanding.
> My interpretation is that, before playing the actual game, they refuse to believe me. They don't trust me or the logic and so dismiss it. Once actual stakes are involved, even if it's their pride, only then do they start to be open to arguments as to why their intuition was wrong.
That is so true - before the own idea/concept gets put to test, it's easy to be delusional about how correct your own "idea" is. As long as it is in the vacuum of your own brain, you can keep it protected and shielded from all that nasty truth that tries to bully and beat it.
There is a reason why a lot of coders do not want others to see their code and do a code review on it...
Replies
> once you open the door, the situation resets
That's the root cause error of your thinking.
The prizes aren't reshuffled and the host's choice of doors depends on both the player's choice and on information that is hidden to the player. No way you can treat that as a reset.
I think in your mind you associate "unknown" strongly with "random" and even "random with equal chances". Just because something is unknown doesn't mean it is random. And if it is random it doesn't mean it is 50/50.
> the logic of Monty Hall Doors does not make sense to me
For me, the core is that you have a 1 in 3 chance of getting it right on your first guess, and nothing can change that. So if you always stick with your original guess, you will win one third of the time.