Is the training cost really that high, though?
The Allen Institute (a non-profit) just released the Molmo 2 and Olmo 3 models. They trained these from scratch using public datasets, and they are performance-competitive with Gemini in several benchmarks [0] [1].
AMD was also able to successfully train an older version of OLMo on their hardware using the published code, data, and recipe [2].
If a non-profit and a chip vendor (training for marketing purposes) can do this, it clearly doesn't require "burning 10 years of cash flow" or a Google-scale TPU farm.
[0]: https://allenai.org/blog/molmo2
No, I doesn't beat Gemini in any benchmarks. It beats Gemma, which isn't a SoTA even among open models of that size. That would be Nemotron 3 or GPT-OSS 20B.
my prediction is that they might switch once AI craze will simmer down to some more reasonable level
No, of course the training costs aren't that high. Apple's ten years of future free cash flow is greater than a trillion dollars (they are above $100b per year). Obviously, the training costs are a trivial amount compared to that figure.