That's an unhelpful way of analyzing stuff because you can cynically retort "You've identified the group that would be incentivized to lobby for this" regardless of what happens. No age verification whatsoever? I bet social media companies would like that! Age verification by the government? I bet it's because the government wants to know what porn sites you visit! Maybe verification by the OS instead? Must be the Google/Android OS duopoly! So complicated PKI or zero knowledge proofs solution? There's probably some consultancy that would benefit, not to mention there's still going to be companies that would handle the outsourcing. There's a whole industry for handling user account management/SSO, for instance, and that's entirely open source.