alt Hacker NewsI don't agree. Lithium and Copper are mined and given electrification scenarios there is a projected supply deficit: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook...
Those prices are outdated now since practically all metals are surging.
There has indeed been great growth in battery capacity but it's as I said nowhere near able to supply a country like Sweden during the winter. It is off by orders of magnitude. We need 5TWh for that. It is not going to happen any time soon.
I understand California is different. Still, one would need to do these risk scenario calculations. Have they been made?
I know California has rotating blackouts already as it is. I really don't have any idea how people find that acceptable. If it happened in Sweden the government would be replaced on the day. It would be a real disaster.
I will be a bigger believer if a state like California can actually show its possible.
For sure I hope technology improves but the current ideas of solar+battery are simply highly unlikely.
Your link does not support the idea of a supply deficit, at least that I see. Propel panicked about lithium under supply, prices surged and didn't even affect battery prices much, and now we are in oversuppply. The worst that can happen is lag time between demand increase and supply match, and there are substitutes for all key metals for most applications, even copper.
Every country will have to figure out how to supply its own power, but Sweden's seasonal variation in renewable resources is not likely to be fixed by batteries, even though batteries will be abundant and in massive supply throughout the rest of the world. If Sweden can't figure out, or merely can't, take advantage of great cheap new technology, they will be at a disadvantage compared to countries that will
> I know California has rotating blackouts already as it is
You don't know that because it's not true. Due to planning not taking into account climate change, there were a few days with demand above expected ability to provide capacity, but there were no blackouts because people were asked to voluntarily cut back on excessive cooling. That mere ask was more than enough to get through the few days. And it was fixed the next year, by what? By batteries! Adding nuclear wouldn't have helped, but batteries were the perfect solution. Perhaps nuclear can help Sweden, but it will be far more expensive than the solutions available to other countries.
It is quite funny that what I thought was US propaganda has been spread to Sweden for repetition. Even including the IEA report that doesn't say what people claim it says!