Better than 50% confidence: they only lie 20% of the time, so when they disagree it's still 64% likely to be heads (.8 x .8)
No, it's 50% -- given that e.g. the flip is H, the base probability is both 16% for HT and 16% for TH.
alt Hacker News
No, it's 50% -- given that e.g. the flip is H, the base probability is both 16% for HT and 16% for TH.