alt Hacker NewsI think that even if it never improves, its current state is already pretty useful. I do think it's going to improve though I don't think AGI is going to happen any time soon.
I have no idea what this is called, but it feels like a lot of people assume that progress will continue at a linear pace for forever for things, when I think that generally progress is closer to a "staircase" shape. A new invention or discovery will lead to a lot of really cool new inventions and discoveries in a very short period of time, eventually people will exhaust the low-to-middle-hanging fruit, and progress kind of levels out.
I suspect it will be the same way with AI; I don't now if we've reached the top of our current plateau, but if not I think we're getting fairly close.
Yes I've read about something like before - like the jump from living in 1800 to 1900 - you go from no electricity at home to having electricity at home for example. The jump from 1900 to 2000 is much less groundbreaking for the electricity example - you have more appliances and more reliable electricity but it's nothing like the jump from candle to light bulb.