alt Hacker NewsLLMs of today advance in incremental improvements.
There is a finite amount of incremental improvements left between the performance of today's LLMs and the limits of human performance.
This alone should give you second thoughts on "AI doomerism".
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pole-vaulting records improve incrementally too. and there is finite distance left to the moon. without deep understanding and experience and numbers to back up the opinion, any progress seems about to reach arbitrary goals.
AI doomerism was sold by the AI companies as some sort of "learn it or you'll fall behind". But they didnt think it through, now that AI is widely seen as a bad thing by general public (except programmers who think they can deliver slop faster). Who would be buying $200/month sub when they get laid off, I am not sure the strategy of spreading fear was worth it. I also don't think this tech can ever be profitable. I hope it burns more money at this rate.
That is not necessarily true. That would be like arguing there is a finite number of improvements between the rockets of today and Star Trek ships. To get warp technology you can’t simply improve combustion engines, eventually you need to switch to something else.
That could also apply to LLMs, that there would be a hard wall that the current approach can’t breach.