Aren't there any scenarios where a C compiler (without assistance by the developer) must be defensive about aliasing, in a way that the Rust compiler must not be?

I guess you could argue that C would reach the same speed because noalias is part of C as well. But I'd say that the interesting competition is for how fast idiomatic and "hand-optimized" (no unrolling, no aliasing hints etc) code is.

Comparing programming languages "performance" only makes sense if comparing idiomatic code. But you could argue that noalias in C is idiomatic. But you could equally well argue that multi threading in Rust is more idiomatic than it is in C and so on. That's where it becomes interesting (and difficult) to quantify.