> Their measured performance on things people care about keep going up, and their software stack keeps getting better and unlocking more performance on existing hardware

I'm more concerned about fully-loaded dollars per token - including datacenter and power costs - rather than "does the chip go faster." If Nvidia couldn't make the chip go faster, there wouldn't be any debate, the question right now is "what is the cost of those improvements." I don't have the answer to that number, but the numbers going around for the costs of new datacenters doesn't give me a lot of optimism.

> Is that based just on the HN "it is lots of money so it can't possibly make sense" wisdom?

OpenAI has $1.15T in spend commitments over the next 10 years: https://tomtunguz.com/openai-hardware-spending-2025-2035/

As far as revenue, the released numbers from nearly anyone in this space are questionable - they're not public companies, we don't actually get to see inside the box. Torture the numbers right and they'll tell you anything you want to hear. What we _do_ get to see is, eg, Anthropic raising billions of dollars every ~3 months or so over the course of 2025. Maybe they're just that ambitious, but that's the kind of thing that makes me nervous.