alt Hacker NewsI feel like China invading Taiwan isn't happening in our lifetimes. Yes, they stand to benefit from it, but I doubt any of the people in charge of decision making are that interested in rocking the boat. There's nobody forcing their hand and the country is doing great without needing to invade anyone.
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Let's hope China doesn't get a leader like Donald Trump in our lifetimes, then I think your prediction will apply. Despite the political tensions, China and Taiwan are so deeply integrated economically that an invasion would hurt not only Taiwan and the global economy, but also China (directly and indirectly). The EU and the US are making efforts to re-shore some semiconductor manufacturing, but TSMC and others will probably still keep a sizable amount of manufacturing in Taiwan, so I don't think this interconnectedness will change anytime soon...
That depends on a certain administration, and it isn't looking good, "if they can, we also can".
"They stand to benefit from it" how!? The only thing they'll get is immediate geopolitical scorn which could very well escalate to mass military action considering how much TSMC now means for the world's economy. A single temporary shutdown of the fabs would mean a global economic apocalypse. They'd be inviting all powers of the world to attack them for no upside whatsoever, because it will all be over by the time they figure out how to leverage the fabs themselves.
2027 is the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party and they have publicly disclosed they want Taiwan re-united by then.
I mean who would have put 'US talks about invading Greenland' on the list of bullshit we have to deal with.
They are 100% going to force the issue.
It will likely be a naval plus air blockade to force a political solution to avoid the messiness of an invasion, but time is on China's side there.
The leader of China literally publicly told his military to have “all options for reunification of Taiwan ready by 2027”
What options do you suppose the military might be working on? Training to surround, and blockade? (Check) Information warfare? (Check) Building high numbers of landing craft? (Check) Building high numbers of modular weapon systems that can rapidly increase the number of offensive ships? (Check) Building numerous high volume drone warfare ships and airborne launchers? (Check)
Keep in mind that there are public language cues that preceded invasion such as declarations of the invalidity of the other country’s sovereignty, declarations that the other country is already part of the invading country. Have you seen any signs of that?
Your persistent doubts require ignorance of strong evidence.
> Yes, they stand to benefit from it
They would benefit in what way?
Because their government seems to benefit a lot from Taiwan existing and being an enemy.