Not to side track too much from this discussion, but I looked at that PolyMarket event: "US civil war before 2027?" Currently, it is priced at 91.3 USD cents for No. If you bet 100 USD, the payout for No will be 109.43. That is very good return -- ~9.5% for 12 months of lending (as PolyMarket required full payment at the time of trade). That is twice the (retail) risk free rate at the moment. I am actually tempted to buy a large part of the order book. Am I missing something obvious?

Also, if you enjoy troll humor, the comments section is very funny.

Is market manipulation or insider trading even regulated on polymarket?

If there is really a civil war, won't these frequencies just get jammed?

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All my life ive heard this, yelled at me by deeply anti democratic anti socials. People voted for trumps policies. Again, yes even after jan 6. Better luck next time, but for 4 years this is what they ordered.

ICE going after fraud and illegals. Voted for.

Closed borders. Voted for.

Isolationist imperialism and a end of the western free trade world order.Voted for.

A loose Canon. Voted for.

A screeching social priest caste driven ou the door. Voted for.

The people have spoken and the reject progressive policies (more accurately they dont care, but reject the package it comes in). Se la vi.

Trump has a ton of work todo before he reaches the starting point of the mullahs. 12000 dead in 3 days. Thats ice shooting 8 people trying to run them over every day. Politics has not platform here, including rejected by the masses cosplay revolutionaries hijacking real disasters. Do something good, help iranian civilization recover.

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