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falcor84today at 9:18 AM1 replyview on HN

Interesting - I found this quantitative historical study [0] showing that while a civil war does significantly increase the likelihood of inflation, only 36% of countries analyzed which had a civil war between 1975-1999 ended up in an inflationary crisis. And with the USD having such a strong foundation, I would expect the risk to be significantly lower.

[0] https://kjis.org/journal/view.html?uid=302&vmd=Full


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spotplaytoday at 2:43 PM

I am speculating wildly but I would expect the exact opposite due to different actors trying to destabilize the US to the point of no recovery in such an event.

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