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sebastiennightyesterday at 6:06 PM1 replyview on HN

If the average car on the road is 10.5 years old, and you assume a flat demand, it is consistent with the lifespan of all cars being exactly 21 years.

(if you look at a random sampling of 100 cars, 5 will be from this year, 5 from 2025, and so on until you've counted the 5 cars from 2005 ; the average age will be 10.5 years)

If you assume that there are more cars sold every year (due to demographics: way more humans are alive today than in 2005), then this is consistent with a useful lifespan of 25 years or more per car since the "10.5" average is skewed younger because of the age pyramid bias.


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kpsyesterday at 7:41 PM

It's poorly worded, but the rest of the article implies that's average lifespan, not average age.

“The average car lifespan now is closer to 322,000 kilometres, which works out to around 10 to 12 years for most drivers.”

“While the average vehicle in Canada may be designed to last around a decade, there are several factors, some of which are within your control and some of which are not, that can impact how long your car lasts.”

My last two cars were scrapped at 13 years due to rust effects.

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