I left my Mac on top of my car in San Francisco once and the next day when I came back it was still there. The thing with catastrophic events that occur at 1% is that even if everyone were to risk it ten times (that's a huge amount for this I think) 9 out of every 10 people would say "nah, nothing happens, I've done it ten times without anything happening" but then 1 out of 10 would die.

So then the question becomes how well you've sampled that catastrophic risk before you say what the real risk is. As an example, I've been mask off and partying since as soon as that became legal. Haven't gotten sick from COVID yet. Shows, house parties, sharing drinks with people who later had it. Tested often because I was this high risk. Zero positives.

I could say "actually, if you just do the things that I did you'll be fine". After all, I've been fine. Nothing happened. I just didn't get sick. I've got the winning formula.