alt Hacker News> You risk $X money and time for a payoff of $Y that comes Z%
Unlike in poker where you know those 3 numbers if you are paying attention, in real life you know only X, and sometimes not even that. The rest is a guessing game, and that estimation is the hard part.
In poker you learn to strategically size $X based on your estimates of $Y, Z%, and current bankroll.
Even if your estimates have large error bars, it can still be a good bet if you believe it’s +EV and have a large enough bankroll.