alt Hacker NewsI read about mathematical expectation in a poker book for the first time a long time ago and it's really an interesting way to think about the world. In real life, it's a bit different though since there are other factors than just raw percentages like poker hands. For example, you could do everything right and still fail while someone else (like a nepo hire) can do everything wrong and still succeed.
Life's odds are rigged.
I think the metaphor is pretty extensible to handle the things you point out.
> you could do everything right and still fail
Sometimes even a high probability draw doesn't get there on the river.
> while someone else (like a nepo hire) can do everything wrong and still succeed
Some people always start with pairs, Axs, or suited connectors.