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zozbot234yesterday at 7:40 PM1 replyview on HN

They really aren't. Every attempt at manipulation just turns into easy money for those who predict the right odds.


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etiamyesterday at 8:24 PM

That only really holds if reporting on the manipulation bets is not turned into effective propaganda for skewing events towards the manipulation outcome. So the main argument of the article holds IMO.

Edited to add: I'd like to rephrase that a bit actually. It doesn't even have to help bring about the particular outcome being bet on. It's enough that it can be used to shift public opinion in some way that's worth the cost to the manipulator.

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