The missing piece is the distinction between a market that observes reality and a market that instigates it.

The criticism is about the systemic risk of converting prediction markets into "Assassination Markets"—mechanisms where the payout is not a reward for foresight, but a bounty for action.

In the case of Maduro, the operation cost around $300 million so a $400,000 payout isn’t providing a financial incentive.

But in the case of assassination, a $400,000 payout is sufficient motivation.