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fartfeaturesyesterday at 2:24 AM2 repliesview on HN

Which makes the prediction market more accurate.


Replies

snowmobileyesterday at 7:38 AM

Not really, for the same reason entrapment isn't usually seen as an accurate way to gather information for law enforcement. See also Goodhart's law and overfitting.

intendedyesterday at 5:55 AM

Eh… sort of? In a sense, they become less accurate, because the prediction market is the causative event, not an independent observer.