> But for general newsworthy events, people aren’t going to be in positions to manually make them happen.

Many newsworthy events (and even more events that actually reach prediction markets, many of which are at best marginally newsworthy) are actions ultimately pivot on a human decision, so the first part isn’t true.

> And no person in a position to start a war would do it to affect a Polymarket bet.

Are you saying “no one would start a war with personal financial gain being part of the motivation”, or “it is impossible for the payoff of a prediction market bet to be of sufficient magnitude to alter the calculus in even the tiniest iota in that case”?

Because the first seems extremely clearly false, and the second seems improbable in the case where the first is false.