There are wide gaps in:

1) the models people are using (default model in copilot vs. Opus 4.5 or Codex xhigh)

2) the tools people are using (ChatGPT vs. copilot vs. codex vs. Claude code)

3) when people tried these tools (e.g., December saw a substantial capability increase but some people only tried AI this one time last March)

4) how much effort people put into writing prompts (e.g., one vague sentence vs. a couple paragraphs of specific constraints and instructions)

Especially with all the hype, it makes sense to me why people have such different estimates for how useful AI actually is.