alt Hacker NewsWith the venezuela attack, the real trade wasn't on Polymarket or Kalshi.
The trade was going long the 3x Oil&Gas ETFs the trading day beforehand. There was huge buying for absolutely zero perceived reason...then boom we just straight up kidnapped Maduro.
It's not necessarily illegal use of secret information.
There exists "alternate data", some companies monitor all kinds of stuff, satellite pictures, etc, some of these companies surely saw the inevitable asset positioning just before such a big attack (150 planes).
Just like the Ukraine invasion was first visible on Google Maps as traffic jams !!! at the border at midnight
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/25/google-...