alt Hacker News> You invented "7%" from thin air.
Yes. I said I did. Because when I openly talk about a hypothetical number, people have to focus on whether my logic is correct or incorrect. Because that part of the post was about what implies what.
> You claimed nobody was arguing about innocent convictions
No. I said nobody argued MOST convictions were innocent.
Because you keep talking about MOST convictions to make your arguments.
> "Unjust" doesn't mean wrong outcomes
Doesn't mean a specific number of wrong outcomes.
This is the key miscommunication that has caused the entire argument.
A system can be unjust in 100% of cases, but only give the wrong answer in a smaller percent of cases.
> "Coercive" doesn't mean producing false confessions, it just means... pressure exists, somehow.
coerce: To use force, threat, fraud, or intimidation in an attempt to compel one to act against their will.
Edit: To make a clearer statement, whether it's coercion is about whether there is an unreasonable amount of pressure being applied. This has no connection to whether the confession is true or false.
> Here's what you won't say directly but keep implying: that plea bargains routinely produce false confessions.
Yes.
> My position: the law is applied justly more often than unjustly. You either disagree with that or you don't. No more semantic gymnastics. Which. is. it?
Ugh, this is annoying when we're disagreeing about what "just" means.
The way you're using it, the law is just more often than not.
But "more often" is an absolute garbage threshold. We need way way way better than that.
Alright, let's see if I get this right.
You're arguing that a system can apply the law unjustly even when it reaches correct outcomes. I think that's only meaningful if the "unjust application" materially affects people's lives in ways that matter beyond process.
So: plea bargains. You say they apply unreasonable pressure. But what makes the pressure unreasonable? A prosecutor offering a reduced sentence for pleading guilty isn't force, threat, fraud, or intimidation. It's a straightforward trade: save the court's time and resources, get a lighter sentence. That's pressure, but it's not inherently unreasonable.
You could argue it becomes unreasonable when the alternative is so severe that even innocent people feel compelled to plead. But that's an empirical claim. How often does that happen? You've now said you think plea bargains routinely produce false confessions. That's testable. Where's the evidence?
On thresholds: you're right that "more often than not" sounds low for a justice system. But the question is compared to what? Every alternative has error rates. Jury trials have wrongful convictions. Bench trials have wrongful convictions. The question isn't whether the system is perfect, it's whether it's better than the realistic alternatives and whether the error rate is acceptable.
What error rate would you accept? Because without that, "we need way way way better" is just saying "it should be perfect," which isn't achievable.
The original claim upthread was that the law is rarely applied justly. That's not a claim about error rates being too high, it's a claim that injustice is the norm. Do you actually believe that, or are you arguing something more limited about plea bargaining specifically?