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softwaredougyesterday at 3:47 PM2 repliesview on HN

When I actually look at the data, a lot of US deficit growth came from several specific shocks, with inconsistent years of recovery.

- 9/11

- Iraq War

- Covid

The US did recover a bit deficit-wise in Obama years, but have not reset the fiscal picture from Covid.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD


Replies

orwinyesterday at 4:01 PM

The plunge around 2001 wasn't caused by 9/11, and was orchestrated a bit before. Since Clinton managed to cut a lot of spending (both due to his governance and global economics) and reduce some tax avoidance schemes, the US budget had a surplus, so the Bush admin implemented a lot of tax cuts. 9/11 and the following wars didn't had any positive impact, but without the Bush tax cuts, the US budget would still have a surplus in 2003 before the Iraq war

epistasisyesterday at 3:54 PM

What does debt pressure have to do with this? That is an unconnected topic, and not a threat to treasuries.