It doesn't goto nearly zero. TSMC has a large fab in Arizona and they are continuing to expand it. They also have a fab in Washington, and in Japan. [1]

[1]https://www.tsmc.com/english/aboutTSMC/TSMC_Fabs

I agree. It's funny that this is one of the cited reason for the (relative) value suppression of tsmc, but the same factors should apply to Nvidia too.

Going to zero is one potential outcome. Equally plausible is it goes up 10% in a relatively quick battle or diplomatic outcome which ends the geopolitical uncertainty.

Idk the pro china side is getting more and more support, at this rate they’ll vote themselves into mainland

I think they are already hedging for Taiwan. 1. They just pseudo-acquired Groq, fully made in USA (GlobalFoundries) and with a diversified supply chain. 2. And they just announced they will be re-introducing RTX 3090 made in Korea (Samsung). 3. And they plan to produce chips in Intel's new US fabs soon.

I think the bigger problems of the AI bubble are energy and that it's gaining a terrible reputation for being the excuse for mass layoffs while suffocating the Internet with slop/brainrot content. All while depending on government funding to grow.

But then again what won't? Non tech stocks?

What does the US gov't do in response? Wouldn't they throw globs of money at Intel and Nvidia?

China invading Taiwan makes zero sense, they just flex those muscles for domestic consumption. They will probably take over Taiwan, but they'll do it how modern major powers do anything: propaganda, influence campaigns, and soft power.

but they're expected to have 8 or 9 aircraft carriers by 2035, doesn't it make sense to wait until then?

NVIDIA has been producing Blackwell in Arizona since October. Don't be dramatic.

There would be a supply crunch but a lot of dollars will be shuffled VERY fast to ramp up production.