alt Hacker News> One of the questions of the 2026 acx prediction contest is whether Nvidia’s stock price will close below $100 on any day in 2026.
Maybe I’m missing something, but isn’t this just a standard American put option with a strike of $100 and expiry of Dec 31st?
Replies
throw-qqqqq • yesterday at 11:29 PM
It’s a binary option.
mklyachman • yesterday at 4:56 PM
Not really. American put options will pay differently for 95 dollars vs 99 dollars, while this contract settles to 1 either which way.
No because if it goes to $99.99, you don't win much. With a prediction contest it is either you win or you lose.