alt Hacker News> Consequently, Trump’s approach is the only way forward.
It's the DoD.
Prior to Trump's actions, the American-led "world order" seemed to work, even if we couldn't get China to agree to a "Bretton Woods 2.0".
Biden tried diplomacy with the EU. He tried to get them to agree to a renewed US-led world order, but it wasn't working. The EU decided to play the US and China against each other to improve its own standing, which is why the US is now moving away from the EU.
I think the US could seriously pull out of NATO and leave the EU to fend off Russia by itself. It'll have to start spending enormous tax dollars on defense and war.
Meanwhile, if the world is truly becoming multi-polar, then the US wants to consolidate power in its own hemisphere. This is why there's all the rhetoric and action on Venezuela, Cuba, Greenland, Canada, etc. The US will keep Chinese ports, basing, and trade completely out and secure the trade routes for when the Arctic opens up. It recently changed control over the Panama Canal, and the DoD is dead serious about taking Greenland and maintaining complete hemispheric control.
With whatever energy the US has left, it will dedicate to Asia. It will strengthen alliances and project power there instead of dealing with Europe.
The world is going to be a much more violent place without hegemony. Free trade doesn't exist in that type of world. The US realizes this and is playing 50 years ahead. None of the nice words matter when the energy, trade, and economic lines are redrawn.
People like to say the US is led by lawyers and China is led by scientists and engineers. This is wrong. The US is led by war generals and intelligence. The career DoD folks are the ones impressing upon the administration to make these moves.
To be clear: I hate this. I loved the world I grew up in. I think we're headed for a violent world that could easily erupt into war. I don't like it.
Replies
> Biden tried diplomacy with the EU. He tried to get them to agree to a renewed US-led world order, but it wasn't working.
Can you elaborate on that? It seems to me it "wasn't working" mostly in the sense that Trump got elected again.
> The EU decided to play the US and China against each other to improve its own standing, which is why the US is now moving away from the EU.
Seems like confusing cause and effect. The EU is drifting away from the US towards China because the US pushed them away.
> The world is going to be a much more violent place without hegemony. Free trade doesn't exist in that type of world. The US realizes this and is playing 50 years ahead. None of the nice words matter when the energy, trade, and economic lines are redrawn.
This is happening largely because of the US, although they stand to lose by replacing a world order that benefits them with a world order that benefits China and Russia. Well maybe the US will become sufficiently like China and Russia that they can benefit too. But even with a gradual loss of hegemony there was nothing inevitable about a transition to the law of the jungle and it's doubtful that the net result will be positive for the US.
> People like to say the US is led by lawyers and China is led by scientists and engineers. This is wrong. The US is led by war generals and intelligence.
I think the relevant distinction is that the US is democratic while China is authoritarian. But the current US government wants to be authoritarian.
> The career DoD folks are the ones impressing upon the administration to make these moves.
Again a reversal of cause and effect? I doubt old career DoD folks like the current developments. But the current government might give a bigger role to the war generals.
> I think the US could seriously pull out of NATO and leave the EU to fend off Russia by itself. It'll have to start spending enormous tax dollars on defense and war.
Disagree. If US pulls out of NATO, most likely scenario is EU continue to concede to Russia. I think EU will concede on Greenland too, but likely won't do it without any military action (unclear whether that will trigger nuclear escalation and how that can end).
Except all of that will be for naught because the US is making the fatal mistake of doubling down on oil and coal. It's pointless to play 50 years ahead if you won't make it even the next 20.
> The EU decided to play the US and China against each other to improve its own standing, which is why the US is now moving away from the EU.
This is sanewashig this whole thing. The fact is, the US is moving away from the EU because Trump doesn't like democracies. It's that simple. You have a large percentage of your population in what is essentially a cult and you have givem them the reigns.
>The EU decided to play the US and China against each other to improve its own standing, which is why the US is now moving away from the EU.
How so? What actions did the EU take?
You don't think the declaration of himself as dictator and the immediate threats against EU allies might have changed EU attitudes at all?