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mvdtnzyesterday at 5:18 PM2 repliesview on HN

People don't actually believe this type of analysis... do they?


Replies

bitshiftfacedyesterday at 6:08 PM

You have it turned upside down. The analysis is of people's beliefs. In other words, the underlying data is created from the beliefs of the people who trade it, and the analysis is taking those beliefs and applying it to a specific question.

chealdyesterday at 5:33 PM

The entire options market is built on this kind of analysis.