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827ayesterday at 5:19 PM1 replyview on HN

The decline has been steady since ~2000.

The US dollar being used less across the world has both negative and positive consequences for the US and USG. This is the Triffin Dilemma, and dates back to the 1960s; the USD's dominance over-values the currency relative to other currencies, which hurts exports and thus domestic manufacturing. It also conflicts USG/UST priorities between making decisions that are best for the US people, versus best for international customers of the dollar. Triffin covered this at length in his address to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress in 1959, but in short, the USD acting as world reserve currency creates demand for the dollar, which the US has to be able to supply, which pre-1971 meant extreme strain on her gold supply, and post-1971 means greater monetary inflation.


Replies

wesapienyesterday at 11:03 PM

Most think that the cracks in the financial system started to appear after 2008 (global financial crisis) and become truly visible after the financial system was weaponized through the seizures of Russian central bank USD reserves. It setup a precedent that it happened once it could happen again to some other country.

Cheers to you for mentioning Triffin's dilemma. In my opinion, the dilemma is in the ability of the host country to be able to make "good use" of the exorbitant privilege. The financial system was not only used against other states but against its own people. Instead of developing the country and building equity through the middle class, it cannibalized its own.